Prelude to War: Germany 1958 (An Alternative History)

Sometime back, I thought that I was going to start my Cold War hot campaign set in 1958, and posted an introduction to the setting here.  Things are now moving along, so the following is a continuation of back-story leading up to the conflict.

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From the time of joint occupation, West Berlin had been a cancer in the heart of Soviet communism.  The economic recovery of West Germany and particularly West Berlin was brandished as a weapon by the west, continuously inflicting wounds that diminished the accomplishments of the Soviet communist model.

The West constantly challenged social order, sparking unrest, resulting in riots and strikes.  East Berliners left for the west by the thousands, and among them were a significant portion of the most educated and able.  And, the western instigated discontent spread beyond the borders of East Berlin and East Germany, extending throughout the Warsaw Pact nations.

There was simply no way around it, the Soviets had to force the west out of Berlin, and eventually, all of Germany.  Melankov had always been especially wary of the use of atomic weapons, and understood that given the current situation between east and west, this was not the time to risk their use.  War in Germany was really out of the question, despite what some of Melankov's contemporaries thought, as it would inevitably lead to atomic warfare, which would impose disproportionate burden on the Soviet Union.

Though the US and Soviet Union both had attack plans for Germany, every indication from intelligence was that the US, and the west generally had no intention to invade the eastern block.  Opportunity had risen to varying degrees previously in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and even East Germany, but Eisenhower had understood the importance of, and respected the Soviet sphere of influence.

Eisenhower's policies were based on economy, not military conquest, and US allies could not afford, and more importantly, did not want to again experience war.  Thus, the most obvious weapon which could force the west out of Berlin, and maybe all of Germany, was the well employed threat of war.  Soviet leadership developed a plan of escalation, that would seemingly threaten war, while convincing the west that Soviet atomic weapon development and employment was advancing to match that of the Americans.  

First, the demand was made for the withdrawal of western forces from West Berlin; the West replied with propaganda about “resolve”.  And so, the East employed ways to make the cost of NATO staying in West Berlin greater than could possibly be afforded.  An escalating series of actions were now set in motion.

First a fence was installed isolating West Berlin from East and crossing at the checkpoints was made very burdensome for westerners, and nearly impossible for residents of the east.  Both the land and air corridors to West Berlin were policed more aggressively, with road travelers frequently being stopped and sometimes detained for extended periods.  The West officially protested each action with growing concern.  And with each protest, the East became more steadfast in their effort.

In time occasional intrusions into West German air space occurred, resulting in a US F86 Sabre being shot down in January, 1958 (The Soviet pilot was received a hero, but died in an "accident" shortly afterward).  Pilots continued to play a potentially deadly game of cat and mouse with increasing belligerence on both sides.  Additionally, there were incidents along the inner German border involving both military personnel and civilians.  These incidents sometimes resulted in injury or death and became more frequent as the tension grew.

During this period, the US increased the number of exercises and alerts involving their forces deployed in West Germany, as did most of the NATO partners with forces located there.  The re-arming of West German military forces was hurried, and France held forces that might otherwise been sent to deal with their Algerian problem.  As time advanced, each action served only to bring about the next reaction.

The Soviets recalled some of Khrushchev’s draw-down forces back to East Germany, and increased the frequency and scope of exercises.  Likewise, the number of air patrols were significantly increased, as were airspace violations by Soviet bombers along the coasts of northern and western Europe.

In the west, the recalled Soviet forces were seen by many as a build-up for an imminent attack by the Warsaw Pact.  NATO responded in kind, with US, UK, Canadian, and French reserves being activated and partially deployed.  The US conversion to Pentagonal divisions was accelerated and US reconnaissance overflights of Warsaw Pact and Soviet territory were increased, resulting is some losses both to enemy aircraft and the new SA-2 missiles that were entering service.

In March, four US servicemen and seven civilians were indefinitely detained by East German Police, while traveling to East Berlin.  They were arrested during three different incidents in the same week, and none were allowed any contact outside of East German and Soviet authorities.  A US protest was largely ignored, and land transit to West Berlin was closed.

The last straw came with the closure of the air corridors to West Berlin.  The East Germans gave warning, and just after the closure began, the Americans responded with a pair of F-86s escorting a C-119 through corridor airspace.  All three aircraft were shot down along with a Soviet Mig-19 in the process.

NATO forces were already on alert, with NATO now preparing for war in earnest.  The number of deployed reserves grew in the days following the shoot-down.   Civilians on both sides of the inner German Border began moving away from it.  The situation in isolated West Berlin grew precarious, as the west worked on a plan to save the city. 

East Germany and the Soviets were given 8 days to open the corridors to East Berlin, or “suffer the consequences of their action”.  Soviet and East German forces deployed to absorb an initial NATO advance, despite the fact that some in Soviet intelligence still believed that NATO would not attack.  Soviet preparations included the deployment of both active and dummy FROG and SCUD "atomic" missile units.  The "bluff" needed to be complete.

The corridors were not re-opened...