The Soviet View of the Uwanda-Mugabia War

In the hours following Uwanda's initial advance, word of the results were conveyed to Soviet and Cuban leadership through their advisors and various other pipelines of communication.  Soviet satellites offered indisputable evidence of Mugabia's failings.  The result is that both Soviet and Cuban leadership had a much better understanding of the day's events, than did the Mugabian president.
____

"Welcome comrade General; it is good to see you again", said the Soviet Ambassador, as the General entered his office.  The General and the Ambassador were seated as the assistant poured their drinks.  The general was always a welcome guest, as the two men had long been both friends and associates, though the issue at hand was less than favorable.

"So, the fool has gotten himself into a .. situation."  said the general. 

"Yes, it seems that he has ignored our intelligence and our advice, and was unprepared for the scope of Uwanda's attack.  Though unprepared, his ground forces should be sufficient to manage the situation, but it seems that even we have underestimated the capability of Uwanda's air force.  In little time, Mugabia's army will be at the mercy of Uwandan air supremacy.  He doesn't realize it yet, but Mugabia's situation is critical." shared the Ambassador.  "His over-confidence has been compounded by the Cuban's enthusiasm."

The general frowned, took a sip of his vodka, and reflected," Once again, the dedication of our Cuban friends has dragged us into an African war.  Moscow does not favor these events at this time, but I fear that the events will dictate Moscow's actions."

The two men continued their discussion, listing the current options, and details of each relative to the current circumstances.  The most hopeful was that Moscow and the ambassador could manipulate a  political agreement to end the current conflict, but unless the situation could be tied to events elsewhere, resulting in external pressures from the other side, there was no reason for Uwanda to stop.

Other considerations were to overthrow the fool president of Mugabia, and install a different and hopefully more... cooperative leader in the democratic republic.  And/or, to simply give Mugabia what it needed to win: more tanks, more planes, and given the situation, Russian planes and pilots.

That last step would be tricky.  Moscow was concerned that even with Cuban pilots, Mugabia would not take the right steps to win, but with Russian pilots, Moscow could more forcibly direct the war.  The question was whether or not the West would counter the move directly.  Africa was not the Soviet Union's back doorstep, as was Afghanistan.  The west was heavily invested in Uwanda, and this was a strange place to risk turning the Cold War hot.

There was of course, the option to simply let the war follow its own path, let the fool be consumed, and watch Mugabia fall.  This was probably the most sensible path, but politically, was the least acceptable.  The ambassador saw no way that Uwanda could win, and a socialist Mugabia could remain.

It was agreed that the ambassador would roll his diplomatic dice, and Moscow would act as they needed.  The two friends then turned their discussion to one of grandchildren, and enjoyed the rest of their afternoon.